Iraqi Army About four years ago, Iraq was being ruled by an elite dictatorship of the BAAS party; but a stable, secular and “silent” country, under heavy sanctions. In March 2003, the U.S. leaded coalition attacked and occupied the country, in the name of “liberty” and in its hypocrite way claimed to “export democracy” to this somewhat hitherto neglected Middle East land. (Not to mention the false WMD claims which were soon proven to be wrong, or a direct misinformation.) A very unusual thing happened one year ago and general elections were held in a country that was widely occupied by foreign forces and harshly experiencing a sectarian violence. Could an injected democracy grow up under these circumstances or could it result a much more dangerous situation, like a much feared civil war?

Today we have the replies for these questions. Joshua Holland of AlterNet writes that there were widespread rumours about a very likely coup in Iraq:

Iraq is splintering along a dozen fault lines, and the prospects for a political solution are slim. Experts in conflict negotiation — veterans of civil wars in places like Northern Ireland and Cambodia — talk about the need for a clash to “ripen,” to come to a point when combatants are exhausted with the violence and see that whatever they might gain from continued fighting is outweighed by the costs. Before they get to that place, a political settlement is all but impossible.

[…]

Today the government elected last December is hanging by a thread. Iraqi lawmakers reached by phone earlier this week reported that Baghdad is awash in rumors of an impending coup. There’s widespread anticipation that a “government of national salvation” — a junta — will seize power and dissolve Iraq’s Parliament at any time. Those rumors are being echoed in Washington.

The most commonly discussed scenario is of a council of four or five influential leaders headed either by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi — a secular, pro-American Shiite with a violent background — or Saleh al-Mutlaq, head of the Sunni National Dialogue Front and a former constitutional negotiator, taking power in a bloodless coup.

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